The World Economic Forum published the 2020 Global Risk Report. About 750 analysts from around the world pointed out their main concerns in terms of impact and probability for the year.
For the first time in the survey’s 10-year outlook, the top five global risks in terms of likelihood are all environmental, overcoming the economic agenda.
This report guides the discussions of the Forum that takes place in Davos from January 21st to 24th, 2020.
WHAT IS THE REPORT
The Global Risk Report is a document published by the World Economic Forum that precedes the conference and guides the discussions that will take place during the event.
The 2020 edition was held in partnership with Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, insurance companies that have risk management as their core business.
The advisers were the National University of Singapore, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Wharton Risk Management e Decision Processes Center – University of Pennsylvania.
Over 750 global experts and decision-makers were asked to rank their biggest concerns in terms of likelihood and impact. There are 5 categories of risks: economic, environmental, geopolitical, technological and societal.
LIKELIHOOD AND IMPACT
Respondents were asked to assess: (1) the likelihood of a global risk occurring over the course of the next 10 years, and (2) the severity of its impact at a global level if it were to occur.
In 2020 report, these are the top 5 risks by likelihood over the next 10 years:
- Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
- Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
- Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)
- Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
- Human-made environmental damage and disasters
These are the top 5 risks by severity of impact over the next 10 years:
- Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
- Weapons of mass destruction
- Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
- Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
- Water crises
The graph below, taken from the report, shows the result of prioritizing impact and probability:
As a Forum that proposes to discuss the world economic agenda, this result from the panel of analysts is an important indication that the climate change agenda starts to directly influence the economic development agenda.
OTHER INSIGHTS
Economic and political polarization will rise this year, as collaboration between world leaders, businesses and policy-makers is needed more than ever to stop severe threats to our climate, environment, public health and technology systems. This points to a clear need for a multistakeholder approach to mitigating risk at a time when the world cannot wait for the fog of geopolitical disorder to lift.
The Conference start on Monday, January, 21st, and we can hope that sustainable development will guide the direction of world economies for the coming years.
* English is not my native language. If you find any opportunity of improvement, let me know. I’ll love to learn from experts!
1st Photo by ANGELA BENITO on Unsplash
2nd Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash
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